If Prices Drop: Still Worth It?

Are solar panels worth it if electricity prices drop?

Solar payback at different electricity prices: AT 30p/kWh: Payback 7-9 years. 25yr savings: £22,000-£30,000. Excellent. AT 24.5p/kWh (current): Payback 8-12 years. 25yr savings: £18,000-£27,000. Very good. AT 20p/kWh: Payback 10-14 years. 25yr savings: £14,000-£21,000. Good. AT 15p/kWh: Payback 13-17 years. 25yr savings: £10,000-£15,000. Still positive. AT 10p/kWh: Payback 18-25 years. 25yr savings: £5,000-£8,000. Marginal but still positive. BREAKEVEN: ~8p/kWh — the price at which solar payback equals panel lifespan. UK ELECTRICITY PRICE HISTORY: Never below 14p since 2015. Pre-crisis low: 14p (2016). Pre-crisis average: 15-18p. Post-crisis: 24-34p. The 'new normal' is 24-28p. PROBABILITY OF 15p/kWh: Very low (<10%). Grid maintenance costs, gas price floor, and decarbonisation costs maintain a structural minimum. CONCLUSION: Solar is profitable at any realistic future UK electricity price. Even the most pessimistic scenario (15p) delivers positive returns. Sources: Ofgem historical price data (ofgem.gov.uk), BEIS electricity price projections.