Which scenario is most likely?

The central scenario (28p/kWh by 2035) aligns with most independent forecasts. However, the past decade has shown that prices can spike unexpectedly (energy crisis took prices to 34p). The central scenario may prove conservative.

Could prices actually fall?

The low scenario (20p/kWh) is possible but unlikely to be sustained. Even with massive renewable deployment, grid maintenance costs, network upgrades, and policy costs maintain a price floor. Electricity has not been below 14p/kWh since 2015.

How does this affect solar payback?

Every 1p/kWh increase in electricity prices shortens solar payback by approximately 4-6 months. At 30p/kWh: payback drops to 7-10 years. At 35p/kWh: 6-8 years. Solar is a natural hedge against rising prices.

What about off-peak rates?

Smart tariffs (Octopus Go at 7.5p overnight) will likely remain available but may see rates increase in line with wholesale prices. The spread between peak and off-peak typically maintains at 2-3x, preserving battery arbitrage value.

UK Electricity Price Forecast to 2035

By Home Solar Guide Team|Updated 19 March 2026|educational

Independently written | Evidence-based | Sources cited

UK electricity price forecast 2035 — Three scenarios to 2035: low (20p), central (28p), high (35p/kWh). Solar hedges all.

What would this actually cost at your home?

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What would this actually cost at your home?

Installed prices vary widely by roof, access and region. Get an installed price for your property from MCS-certified installers.

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What will electricity cost per kWh in 2035?

UK electricity price forecast 2026-2035 based on aggregated projections from three authoritative sources: LOW SCENARIO (20p/kWh by 2035): Based on BEIS Updated Energy & Emissions Projections 'low' pathway (gov.uk/government/collections/energy-and-emissions-projections). Assumes: rapid renewable deployment, low gas prices, no supply shocks. Solar payback in this scenario: 11-15 years (still profitable). CENTRAL SCENARIO (28p/kWh by 2035): Based on National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios 'System Transformation' pathway (nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios). Assumes: steady decarbonisation, moderate gas price, grid investment costs passed through. Solar payback: 8-11 years. HIGH SCENARIO (35p/kWh by 2035): Based on Cornwall Insight forward projections and historical energy crisis patterns. Assumes: gas price volatility, slow nuclear replacement, grid constraint costs. Solar payback: 6-9 years. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: UK electricity prices have risen from 14p/kWh (2016) to 26.11p/kWh (2026) — 75% increase in 10 years (source: Ofgem historical price cap data, ofgem.gov.uk). The long-term trend is structurally upward due to grid investment, gas volatility, and decarbonisation costs. KEY FINDING: Solar panels deliver positive ROI under ALL three scenarios. Even in the low scenario, payback completes within 15 years, leaving 10-15 years of pure profit.