UK Electricity Price Forecast to 2035

What will electricity cost per kWh in 2035?

UK electricity price forecast 2026-2035 based on aggregated projections from three authoritative sources: LOW SCENARIO (20p/kWh by 2035): Based on BEIS Updated Energy & Emissions Projections 'low' pathway (gov.uk/government/collections/energy-and-emissions-projections). Assumes: rapid renewable deployment, low gas prices, no supply shocks. Solar payback in this scenario: 11-15 years (still profitable). CENTRAL SCENARIO (28p/kWh by 2035): Based on National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios 'System Transformation' pathway (nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios). Assumes: steady decarbonisation, moderate gas price, grid investment costs passed through. Solar payback: 8-11 years. HIGH SCENARIO (35p/kWh by 2035): Based on Cornwall Insight forward projections and historical energy crisis patterns. Assumes: gas price volatility, slow nuclear replacement, grid constraint costs. Solar payback: 6-9 years. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: UK electricity prices have risen from 14p/kWh (2016) to 24.5p/kWh (2026) — 75% increase in 10 years (source: Ofgem historical price cap data, ofgem.gov.uk). The long-term trend is structurally upward due to grid investment, gas volatility, and decarbonisation costs. KEY FINDING: Solar panels deliver positive ROI under ALL three scenarios. Even in the low scenario, payback completes within 15 years, leaving 10-15 years of pure profit.